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Preventable Surprises’ goal is to contribute to the reduction of emissions by the world’s largest companies in a time frame that will allow global warming to stay below 2 degrees.

We believe institutional investors should share this goal, because global warming above 2 degrees presents significant ‘value at risk’ in a diversified portfolio. Taking action on climate change is therefore a fiduciary duty for long term investors, which ­ if ignored ­ could lead to litigation. In the Forceful Stewardship Guidelines, we offer a simple way to comply with this fiduciary duty – vote for AGM resolutions that require companies to publish 2 degree transition plans


What is the best role for Engagement Overlay Providers if they and their clients accept climate science?

Asset owners are, rightly, frustrated with how many investment managers actually “do” stewardship. Rather than engage assertively with managers about their stewardship performance, however, asset owners are outsourcing these responsibilities to engagement overlay providers (EOPs). This strategy can address some ESG problems at a limited number of outlier companies, but it fails to address ESG […]

Beyond stress tests: preparing for the next AGM season

Leading up to COP21, companies faced investor pressure to report on stress tests or scenario analyses that acknowledge the potential for regulations limiting global warming to no more than 2° Celsius. This was a modest ask which accorded with the then political realities. In the wake of strong consensus at COP21, however, investors must be […]

We support the Missing 60% initiative!

The individuals listed below have signed in their personal capacity. Organisational affiliations are shown for identification purposes only. Prof Michael ASHLEY, Department of Astrophysics, University of New South Wales [Australia] Prof Ugo BARDI, Department of Physical Chemistry, Università di Firenze; Member, Club of Rome [Italy] Bill BAUE, Co-Founder, Sustainability Context Group and Convetit [USA] Bob BEALE, […]

Obama’s top science adviser is right…and wrong!

Obama’s top science adviser, John Holdren, is right and wrong. Yes, we will need fossil fuels for some time and some (gas) could be better than others (if pipeline leakage is reduced). But no, being “gradual, modest” and “realistic” isn’t enough. Advocating decarbonisation in the latter half of the century is likely to mean warming of 2-3C […]

Consensus on “Peak Demand” gathers momentum

Bloomberg New Energy Finance and McKinsey have both concluded that a rapid take-up of electric vehicles will lead to a late 2020s peak in oil demand. This was part of our original case for forceful stewardship and you can see our senior adviser, Howard Covington, discussing this possibility and exploring the climate and economic consequences – […]

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